As students return to classrooms, the beginning of the academic year brings more than new schedules and school supplies. Roads become crowded with buses, parent vehicles, teenage drivers, pedestrians, and cyclists. Fall sports practices begin during some of the hottest weeks of the year, while schools prepare for safety concerns ranging from bullying to serious emergencies.
H&P Law analyzed transportation fatalities, serious school offenses, vaccination coverage, and high school sports policies to identify the states where students may face the greatest risks during the back-to-school season. The resulting Back-to-School Risk Index compares all 50 states using five weighted indicators.
South Dakota ranks as the highest-risk state with a score of 85.29. Missouri, Kentucky, Wyoming, and Nebraska complete the five highest-risk states. At the opposite end of the index, New Jersey received the lowest risk score, followed by Massachusetts, Connecticut, Tennessee, and North Dakota.
A state’s position in the rankings does not reflect the conditions at every school or the experience of every student. The index compares statewide data involving transportation, reported school incidents, health, and emergency preparedness. It should be viewed as a comparison of those factors rather than a forecast of individual injuries or safety incidents.
The 10 Highest-Risk States for Back-to-School Safety
South Dakota’s position at the top reflects elevated risk across each of the index’s three broader categories. The state recorded 2.12 commute-window deaths and 2.12 pedestrian or cyclist deaths per 100,000 public-school students. It also recorded 41.8 serious school offenses per 1,000 students and met only 43.6% of the high school sports safety policy framework used in the analysis.
Other states reached the top of the index for different reasons. School incidents had a particularly significant effect in Louisiana, Kentucky, Nebraska, and Missouri. Louisiana recorded 70.4 serious offenses per 1,000 students, the highest rate included in the analysis. Kentucky followed at 61.1 offenses per 1,000 students, while Nebraska recorded 53.2 and Missouri recorded 46.0.
Transportation had a greater effect on the scores for Wyoming, Mississippi, and Montana. Wyoming recorded 2.20 commute-window deaths per 100,000 students, and the same rate for pedestrian and cyclist deaths.
Mississippi had the highest commute-window fatality rate in the country, with 12 deaths and a rate of 2.75 per 100,000 students. Montana recorded three deaths during the defined commute window, producing a rate of 2.01 because of its smaller student population.
These comparisons illustrate why counts and population-based rates must be considered together. Texas, California, and Florida recorded the largest numbers of commute-window deaths, but their larger public school populations resulted in lower rates than those found in several less populous states. Conversely, one or two deaths can sharply affect the rate in a state with relatively few students.
The 10 Lowest-Risk States for Back-to-School Safety
New Jersey received the lowest comparative risk score. The state recorded 0.14 commute-window deaths and 0.14 pedestrian or cyclist deaths per 100,000 public-school students. It also reported 8.6 serious school offenses per 1,000 students, a 7.2% kindergarten MMR vaccination gap, and an 85% high school sports safety policy score.
Massachusetts had no deaths within the study’s commute-window measure and recorded 0.22 pedestrian or cyclist deaths per 100,000 students. Its kindergarten MMR gap was 3.4%, although a larger gap in its sports safety policy coverage kept its overall score above New Jersey’s.
North Dakota recorded no commute-window or pedestrian and cyclist deaths among children ages 5 through 17. Even so, the state did not rank among the five lowest-risk states because 10% of kindergartners were not up to date on the MMR vaccine, and its sports safety policy gap reached 58 points.
The School Commute Creates Risks Beyond the Bus
School buses are generally considered one of the safest ways for children to travel. The risks associated with school transportation, however, extend beyond the passengers seated inside the bus.
NHTSA recorded 962 fatal school-bus-related crashes from 2015 through 2024. Those crashes killed 1,069 people, or an average of approximately 107 people each year. Of the 204 school-age children who died, only 39 were riding on school buses.
The remaining deaths involved 78 children riding in other vehicles, 77 pedestrians, seven cyclists, and three other nonoccupants. In total, 165 of the 204 school-age children killed in these crashes were either outside the bus or traveling in another vehicle.
Students may be especially vulnerable while waiting at a bus stop, crossing the street, or walking away after being dropped off. In some situations, the bus can block a driver’s view of children entering the roadway. Drivers who pass a stopped bus, travel too fast, or allow distractions to take their attention from the road add to that risk.
In 2024, 323 children between the ages of 5 and 17 died in traffic crashes during the hours when students typically travel to and from school. H&P Law reviewed crashes from 6 to 8:59 a.m. and 2 to 5:59 p.m. on weekdays outside the summer months, resulting in a national rate of 0.65 deaths per 100,000 public-school students.
The data capture crashes during hours that generally overlap with school travel, although the time of day alone cannot confirm the purpose of each trip. The totals may include crashes that occurred on school holidays or closure days, as well as children traveling somewhere other than school.
Among the states, Mississippi had the highest commute-window rate at 2.75 deaths per 100,000 students. Wyoming followed at 2.20, while South Dakota recorded 2.12 and Montana recorded 2.01. Texas had the largest number of deaths at 38, followed by California with 29 and Florida with 24.
The afternoon may present an especially complicated mix of traffic. Students leave school at approximately the same time as buses, parent vehicles, teenage drivers, pedestrians, and cyclists enter surrounding streets. Regular commuter traffic may also be increasing as the workday approaches its end.
School bus drivers documented 56,024 illegal passes during the one-day 2026 National Stop Arm Violation Count. Of those, 28,596 occurred on afternoon routes, compared with 25,707 in the morning.
Students who walk or bike to school may encounter different problems. Parents reported at least one obstacle to walking or cycling at 76% of schools included in a national survey.
Distance was cited most frequently, followed by traffic conditions at 39% of schools. At 30%, parents pointed to missing sidewalks or crossing guards.
Safety Concerns Continue Inside and Around Schools
Transportation is only one part of the back-to-school risk picture. During the 2021–2022 academic year, public schools recorded an estimated 857,500 violent incidents. Sixty-seven percent of schools reported at least one, representing approximately 19 violent incidents per 1,000 students.
The federal definition extends beyond incidents inside classrooms. It includes events in school buildings, on school grounds, on school buses, and during school-sponsored activities. The category also covers several types of conduct with different degrees of severity. Thus, the total should not be interpreted as a count of only the most serious acts of violence.
Physical attacks or fights without a weapon were reported at 61% of public schools, while 4% reported an attack or fight involving a weapon. Approximately 3,000 schools reported at least one hate crime. Weekly bullying was reported by 28% of middle schools, 15% of high schools, and 10% of elementary schools.
High school students reported more bullying and weapon-related threats in 2023 than they had two years earlier. The CDC found that weapon threats or injuries on school property affected 9% of students, compared with 7% in 2021. Bullying reports reached 19%, up from 15%.
The survey also asked whether safety concerns had caused students to miss school. Thirteen percent answered yes in 2023, compared with 9% in 2021. The questionnaire covered concerns about being on campus as well as traveling to school.
H&P Law also reviewed seven categories of serious offenses documented through the Civil Rights Data Collection. Across a public-school population of roughly 48.2 million students, the records included 1,208,015 offenses, equivalent to 25.1 per 1,000 students.
Louisiana had the highest rate, based on 46,086 documented offenses. Kentucky ranked second with 39,441 offenses and a rate of 61.1 per 1,000 students. California had the largest raw total at 170,661, but its rate of 29.2 per 1,000 students was considerably lower.
Sports and Health Policies Affect Back-to-School Readiness
The beginning of the school year also marks the return of organized athletics for millions of students. High school sports participation reached a record 8,266,244 students during the 2024–2025 academic year, an increase of 203,942 in one year.
August practices can expose student-athletes to some of the hottest and most humid conditions of the season. Stronger state policies account for that risk through gradual heat acclimatization, weather-related practice restrictions, cold-water immersion equipment, and instructions to begin cooling an athlete before transport.
The Korey Stringer Institute evaluates the extent to which each state has adopted evidence-based high school sports safety policies. Georgia and Florida had the strongest policy scores included in H&P Law’s analysis, meeting 93.67% and 93% of the framework, respectively. New Jersey followed at 85%.
At the other end of the comparison, Maine met 30% of the framework. Mississippi met 32.38%, Minnesota met 33.75%, Nebraska met 36%, and Montana met 37.8%. These scores measure the adoption of statewide policies. They do not establish whether individual schools follow every requirement during every practice or whether a particular policy prevented an injury.
Vaccination coverage formed the other part of the index’s health and readiness category. Nationally, MMR coverage among kindergartners declined from 95.2% during the 2019–2020 school year to 92.5% in 2024–2025. The CDC estimates that approximately 286,000 kindergartners remained at risk during the latter school year.
Idaho had the largest reported state vaccination gap in H&P Law’s analysis, with 21.5% of kindergartners not up to date on the MMR vaccine. Alaska had an 18.8% gap, Minnesota had a 13.5% gap, Colorado had a 12% gap, and Oklahoma had an 11.3% gap.
Minnesota received the highest health and readiness risk score because it combined a substantial MMR gap with limited sports policy coverage. Idaho, Alaska, and Colorado also ranked near the top of this category because of the interaction between their vaccination and sports policy results.
Infrastructure and Preparation Can Reduce Student Risk
Lower overall risk did not always mean strong performance across the board. Each state’s placement depended on how its transportation, school-incident, health, and policy results came together.
Physical infrastructure is one part of that picture. National school survey data indicate that 79% of schools had sidewalks on at least some immediately surrounding streets, meaning 21% had none. School zones were present around 84% of schools, and crossing guards worked near 43%.
Schools do not always have traffic controls in place on nearby streets. Thirty-five percent reported no traffic-calming measures around campus, and speed humps or speed tables were present near just 17%. Speed-safety cameras were even less common at 8%. Most schools, 82%, also lacked surrounding bicycle infrastructure.
School-zone cameras have been associated with safer conditions along covered streets in New York City. The city reported a 72% reduction in speeding, an 8% decline in injury crashes, and a 20% drop in injuries involving child pedestrians and cyclists.
Colorado, Nevada, and South Dakota authorized school-bus stop-arm cameras in 2025, bringing the number of states with such laws to 30. Individual districts may still decide whether and how widely to use them.
Schools have also expanded many campus security measures. In 2021–2022, 97% of public schools controlled access to buildings during school hours, and the same percentage required visitors to check in and wear badges. Security-camera use increased from 61% of schools in 2009–2010 to 93% in 2021–2022.
Threat assessment teams are now used by most schools as part of their safety planning. Eighty-five percent of U.S. schools reported having one as of April 2024, and 45 states had adopted some type of behavioral threat assessment policy by 2025.
How well these systems work may depend on the training, staffing, and student resources available to support them. Transportation requirements, athletic safety standards, and emergency plans face a similar challenge: the policy must also be followed consistently at the local level.
Understanding the Back-to-School Risk Index
H&P Law converted each state’s raw result into a comparative risk percentile from 0 to 100. A score of 100 represents the highest observed risk among the states, not a 100% probability that an injury or incident will occur.
The five indicators were weighted as follows:
| Indicator | Weight | Newest input | Operational definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commute-window fatality rate | 25% | FARS 2024 + NCES fall 2023 | Ages 5–17; non-summer weekdays; 6–8:59 a.m. or 2–5:59 p.m.; per 100k public students |
| Pedestrian/pedalcyclist fatality rate | 15% | FARS 2024 + NCES fall 2023 | Ages 5–17; all 2024; per 100k public students |
| Serious school-offense rate | 25% | CRDC 2021–22; released Jan. 2025 | Seven documented offense categories per 1,000 CRDC public-school students |
| Kindergarten MMR gap | 15% | CDC 2024–25 | 100 minus the reported MMR up-to-date percentage |
| Sports-safety policy gap | 20% | KSI 2024–25 | 100 minus evidence-based state policy score |
Transportation represents 40% of the final score, school incidents represent 25%, and health and readiness represent 35%.
Small numbers can cause fatality rates to change sharply in states with lower public-school enrollment. For this reason, individual state findings should be presented with both the number of deaths and the population-based rate. The commute-window measure is also a proxy and does not prove that a fatality occurred during a school-related trip.
Full Back-to-School Risk Index
Building a Safer Start to the School Year
Back-to-school safety depends on conditions that extend well beyond the classroom. Students encounter traffic while walking, cycling, riding the bus, or traveling with family members. Once they arrive, their safety may also be affected by how schools document and respond to incidents, prepare for emergencies, manage fall athletics, and address public health concerns.
The H&P Law Back-to-School Risk Index shows that states face different combinations of these challenges. South Dakota received the highest overall risk score, while New Jersey received the lowest. The data also point to areas where schools and communities can focus their attention.
Safer street design, visible crossings, responsible driving near buses, well-supported threat assessment teams, emergency preparation, and enforceable athletic safety standards each address a different source of risk. No single measure can eliminate every danger students encounter, but examining where gaps remain can help states and school systems determine which protections need greater attention.
